Today

I think we go down today. We will see what happens around 1050 and or 1025 to see if there is more upside to this relentless upmove.

Going into the close

This has been an interesting day.... lets see how we close. There are some TICK and UpVol divergences now.

Closing Comments

Today was another low volume day. Breadth was super strong early in the day, but came off somewhat by the close. There was a decent swoon from the highs early afternoon, and some indices came back from that, while others didn't (Transports for one). VIX came back to its 50 day average. We have corrected some of the oversold readings from the end of last week, so we will see what progresses from here. I sensed a lot of Bear despondency yesterday and today. Many Elliot Wavers think that the last two days have negated a down move and we are off to new highs. Given this market, I would not be surprised if they are right. I think being long here is very very dangerous so I am not so much concerned with getting long for new highs. I am curious as to how the market acts in here though. So far, I reserve judgement. I will say that the most recent correction did much more technical damage than any other correction since the March lows, so if new highs do come I believe they will be rife with divergences and non-confirmations.

Precious metals had a great day today as their is widespread belief the dollar is dead. I will only note that (again) that Gold is not as strong in other currencies. I will also point out that we are not making new lows in the dollar, nor are other commodities like crude oil, or copper at new (nor even cyclical) highs. I am not going to defend the unconscionable actions of the Fed (aided and abetted by Congress), but China makes us look like choir boys if we want to discuss monetization or money printing. The UK and Australian private sectors were even more levered than ours at peak. Spain is an absolute disaster, as is Ireland, and Italy. Who says the Euro can even survive as a currency block? I am just not convinced that the Dollar is the worst fiat POS on the block. Its pretty bad.... but there are worse!

Correlations continue to be horrendous. Its all one trade. I cannot wait for that to change. Until it does, just be cognizant of it and your position sizes.

Before the open

Well... 'the' trade is back on. Lets see what the bulls can do with this VIX signal. Dollar is down, commodities and stocks are up.

The precious metals have had a stellar 48 trading hours! (if one is long of course)

Closing Comments

This is going to be one boring post (but there is some decent meat in previous posts so page down). Breadth was excellent today... but on no volume. We will know more tomorrow.

Great Expectations

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/forwardearningsmargins.htm

Not a chance in ......

British Pound Sterling

I really like the short side of Sterling. Right now we have completed a TD Buy Countdown on the dailies, which could provide a short bump to the currency. Looking at the monthly 1.63 looks like a good place to short and 1.6268 on the dailies provides a sell spot too. So the 1.6260 to 1.6300 area should provide decent resistance.