Morning Post 11/09/2026 SPX
7 hours ago
Friday, July 31, 2009
Morning Update
Price action after the GDP report has turned my daily MACD down on the Naz100 and the SP... not yet on the R2K futures. All three futures contracts are trading below their daily pivots. There is a Bradley turn date for 8/1 so this could have come in already. I am sure the bulls would like to see 1000 on the SP for month end so they could mount a rally attempt. As long as the MACD stays negative I may try to feed the ducks.
China's Exit Strategy - Barrons.com
China's Exit Strategy - Barrons.com
Randal Forsyth has some interesting things to say about Chinese lending and growth and its impact on the world for the last few months. It appears the easy credit is coming to an end.
Randal Forsyth has some interesting things to say about Chinese lending and growth and its impact on the world for the last few months. It appears the easy credit is coming to an end.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Shell
From the UK Telegraph....
Shell will also cut its budget for exploration and production in the next half by 10pc from $28bn per year, though it will still be higher than most other oil majors at the reduced level. BP last week said it would keep its capital spending at about $20bn. Mr Voser said he could see no sign that demand for oil was improving, causing the biggest glut of supply for the last 20 years.
He also expressed concern about Shell's "very uncertain" future in Nigeria after attacks by rebel fighters that have more than halved its output in the African country since 2005. Despite the downbeat news, Shell's shares slipped just 3p to close at £15.94, as its profits on a current cost of supplies basis, a key measure for Shell, were better than expected at $2.3bn. Revenue fell 51pc to £63.9bn for the quarter to the end of June, tracking the depressed price of oil at around $60 per barrel.
Simon Henry, finance director of Shell, said that in the likely event of deflation the company would consider freezing its dividend, which was increased by 5pc to 42 cents for the second quarter. Analysts said that the safety of the dividend is likely to depend on how successfully Shell's savings can bring down costs, while demand for oil is still low.
"We expect the company to ultimately cut several thousand of its 102,000 employees, and believe additional cost gains from the restructuring could be in excess of $2bn," said Gordon Gray, an analyst at Collins Stewart.
Me again... the amount of companies with substantially lowered revenues is high. Don't believe this was a good earnings season... it wasn't.
Shell will also cut its budget for exploration and production in the next half by 10pc from $28bn per year, though it will still be higher than most other oil majors at the reduced level. BP last week said it would keep its capital spending at about $20bn. Mr Voser said he could see no sign that demand for oil was improving, causing the biggest glut of supply for the last 20 years.
He also expressed concern about Shell's "very uncertain" future in Nigeria after attacks by rebel fighters that have more than halved its output in the African country since 2005. Despite the downbeat news, Shell's shares slipped just 3p to close at £15.94, as its profits on a current cost of supplies basis, a key measure for Shell, were better than expected at $2.3bn. Revenue fell 51pc to £63.9bn for the quarter to the end of June, tracking the depressed price of oil at around $60 per barrel.
Simon Henry, finance director of Shell, said that in the likely event of deflation the company would consider freezing its dividend, which was increased by 5pc to 42 cents for the second quarter. Analysts said that the safety of the dividend is likely to depend on how successfully Shell's savings can bring down costs, while demand for oil is still low.
"We expect the company to ultimately cut several thousand of its 102,000 employees, and believe additional cost gains from the restructuring could be in excess of $2bn," said Gordon Gray, an analyst at Collins Stewart.
Me again... the amount of companies with substantially lowered revenues is high. Don't believe this was a good earnings season... it wasn't.
Stock Indices
I have always found a weekly divergence between price and the Chaikin Osc (a volume oscillator) to be worth following. The SP, Naz 100, and the R2K are all showing this divergence.
Once my daily MACD turns negative, it may be worth pursuing. Also, notice in the SP500, the plunger day (a 10 day high with a close below the middle of the daily range) today, and the OB condition exemplified by momentum oscillators as well as a count of closes above the previous days high.
Remember that this has been about month end (which still has a day to go), however, the NFP number looms for next Friday.
Remember that this has been about month end (which still has a day to go), however, the NFP number looms for next Friday.
We are also diverging on the McClellan Osc on the dailies. That usually doesn't work out so well.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Closing comments
Wow. Even with the dollar up and crappy breadth... it just doesn't matter. They got them higher on the close. Looks like month end awaits. Pump and dump baby; pump and dump.
The Dollar
The Dollar is having a good day today. In this world of correlations... that suggest downside for stocks and commodities.
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