Stock short term outlook

The last few days of July are usually positive. All the elliot wavers are pointing to triangles forming in the indices, which would imply one more thrust up. Plus we have month end to look forward to where markets usually get marked up. The high volume trading in the SP futures is right around 970-975, which is where we are right now. The daily pivot on the Sept. Contract is 973.33. A 15 minute close above this level may be a signal that the final thrust could be beginning. Continued trade below 970 though, would be a sign of weakness, and cautionary. Next Friday (August 7th) is the NFP report, and that number could be really ugly as the BLS sometimes takes birth death jobs away in an adjustment... and that birth death model is WAAYYYYY off (ergo, they could take away a lot of fictitious jobs they have been adding to make the number look better than it really is).

Bottom line: Although we are big time overbought on the dailies already, the hard trade may be buying it into month end. Trading and holding below 970 on the spoos would be a sign that the market may have exhausted itself already however.