Friday, August 7, 2009




The Aussie Dollar has been a big part of the 'risk trade'. Its a commodity currency, so its a high beta trade on dollar weakness and commodity strength. When it is up, stocks and commodities are usually up, and vice-versa. Well, its charts are getting interesting. I would prefer a divergence in the weeklies, and a count that is further along on the daily sequential. However, when the market is in a 5th wave on the weeklies, and is seriously OB, and is far enough along in the sequential countdown... I have to start looking for some low risk short trades. The point of this exercise is not necessarily the Aussie $; the point is: if it goes, most likely we are very near to the end in the risk trade... they all will go... stocks included.

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