Next Week

The stock market closed up every day last week. It did so on really really bad volume. But whats new? The majority of this rally has been on bad volume (and a ton of insider sales). It will go until it goes no more. Many people feel as if last week's action portends more upside. I am no longer going to say it doesn't.... but last week's internals were not ball busting bullish. I have simply gone to that place within myself where I MAKE myself be patient. This move is not going to end until it ends. I have screwed up picking spots with divergences where I thought it would be over. This thing marches on. Fundamentally, I think there is nothing here. Valuation wise I KNOW there is nothing here. (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/overly-optimistic-consensus-plays.html) Technically... it has kept moving past divergence after divergence after low volume rally after insider sales, etc. However, one of my favorite leading indicators, the copper_gold ratio, continues to suggest downside.

Keep your powder dry. Get out if you are an investor; there will be better prices.

On another note... I looked at the US $ this weekend technically. I think we could see another small sell off in the Dollar here. (A high above yesterdays high in the DX and a new low below yesterday low in the Euro would negate this view.) But we are getting very close to a bottom I would suspect. A few solid closes would clinch it. With correlations the way they are that would mean quite a lot. Keep a keen eye on the dollar.